The English Premier League doesn’t reach what Sir Alex Ferguson termed “squeaky bum time” for another six months, but early suggestions are that there is going to be a huge tussle between Manchester City and Arsenal. Liverpool’s promising start is slightly coloured by their easier opponents. The top six is more open given that Tottenham have gone backwards and Manchester United continue to fall miles short in the week- to -week domestics that Fergie once dominated.
Meanwhile, the bottom of the table has a familiar hue. In 2023, the three promoted sides – Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United, all went straight back down to the Championship. Only the Hatters showed some promising signs of survival. It’s hard to detect any signs of life with two of the current trio of Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester City.
Southampton’s chance to make their mark quickly against ten-man Newcastle on match day three was scuppered by a familiar inability to find the net. They now have the considerable frame of Aaron Ramsdale to reduce the concessions, but the team isn’t EPL quality. Although Russell Martin’s side like to play an expansive, possession-based game, there is a lack of solidity which is being ruthlessly found out.
The Saints’ stubbornness against Arsenal worked to an extent, but when they missed a penalty to take the lead against Manchester United, the whole structure fell apart. Their Premier League odds for survival are not sustainable on this model.
Ipswich have had their moments under the much sought-after Kieran McKenna. They started brightly against big boys Liverpool and Manchester City but punched themselves out quickly in both games. There is certainly something to build on though and it takes more than just spirit to gain draws against the likes of Fulham, Brighton and Aston Villa.
The harsh reality is that wins are needed. Finding that extra piece of quality and then hanging on to it is the challenge. McKenna is highly rated after winning two successive promotions, so there may be a route to escape if they can turn Portman Road into a tricky venue for the opposition.
Steve Cooper has had his hands full with Leicester who know what the Premier League is all about having won the title just eight years ago. The current squad is a pale imitation of that team and the loss of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and previous manager Enzo Maresca to Chelsea have punctured them further.
Recent evidence has shown the kind of resilience that Cooper installed at Nottingham Forest as the Foxes took Arsenal all the way at the Emirates. Vital narrow wins, such as the recent one against Bournemouth, are paramount and they have some important head to heads against fellow strugglers. Ultimately, Jamie Vardy can’t replicate what he once was so Jordan Ayew and Bobby De Cordova-Reid’s input is vital to give them hope up top. Mads Hermansen is the busiest keeper in the league.
If there’s one team that are feeling very sorry for themselves, it’s Wolves. It is over 12 months ago since they beat Manchester City and were dreaming of Europe. In the subsequent year, the defence is flailing, Pedro Neto and Max Kilman have moved on, and the goalkeeper Jose Sa has been benched.
There has been a solemn atmosphere at Molineux and a very tangible lack of confidence in matches. The heavy defeat to Chelsea, who were hardly secure either at the time, showed a real naivety that should not affect a team with this experience. Players like Rayan Ait-Nouri are good going forward but are a liability in defence.
The goals conceded in the 5-3 defeat to Brentford were almost unwatchable. Leaking an average of three goals a game will only end up one way. The Midlands club were already going backwards after a promising start to 2023/24, winning only one of their last ten of the campaign and losing seven. Relegation looks a very ominous possibility.
The Premier League basement clashes are already extremely important as a number of six-pointers are coming up. Once sides are more than a couple of wins behind those out of the bottom three, things will get very difficult for the candidates to stay up. The next run of games are vital to avoid any nightmares before Christmas when the EPL is free from international breaks for the foreseeable future.
The smart money is certainly looking at the porous defences without the necessary quality up front to make up for it. Championship teams who are trying to play football the right way struggle to adapt to the rigours of the step up with such small squads. The Burnley and Luton bubbles burst and Southampton look the most ripe for the route back down.