The first six months of my football betting experience were a catastrophe. I lost $340 over three months and tracked every cent, which makes me a little obsessive, I guess.
Do you know that bet on the gut feeling kind of lose that is? That’s what I basically made every single time. I saw a team I liked, bet on it, and hoped for the best. The win percentage was a measly 32%… and that’s an understatement for how bad it was.
I began taking this a little more seriously. It led to actually using real statistics to help in my betting, as opposed to using the vibes and whatever my buddies at the bar were talking about.
Most beginners are ignorant of what they are betting on. This is seen in how they will bet on odds of 1.85 just because it “looks good” and then proceed to not even analyze whatever they are betting on, or at best, watch a single highlight video on YouTube.
Having recent results from the last 5-7 matches, head-to-head results for at least the last year, and injury reports for the matches are some of the basic things that will make a better bet, and I am surprised at how many people skip these.
I started using some betting platforms that give rewards just for signing up. One of the offers was a welcome bonus for signups that gave me more funds to bet with. You are able to take your time and make way better bets when the funds you are betting with are not your last $50.
What Actually Moves the Odds
There are people that don’t bet often that don’t know that odds change when the money starts to flow in a certain area because they are just random numbers. I watched a Premier League match where the odds started off at 4.20 for the Underdogs and then changed to 3.65 in less than an hour before kick off.
Why is this important? This gives you the potential to get better odds before the competition, who is less likely to check the odds as you will, if you check in 2-3 hours ahead of the match. This is more helpful than you’d expect.
Also, casual bets are most prevalent in weekend games, and in my experience, these are people who only bet on the weekend. These bets are usually on teams people recognize the most, as in FIFA. These are usually people’s favorite teams. There is no betting on the statistically better teams. More often than not, these are my favorite days to bet. More common with people who bet are Tuesday & Wednesday games.
Building a System That Actually Works
I never thought I’d say this, but my win percentage is usually around 58%. It used to be around 32%. This is just a huge improvement to how I viewed betting overall.
This is the system I now abide by. I select a maximum of 4 games each week. There is a common misconception that this is going to lead to less betting. This is what I thought as well. However, I have a way better chance of picking the correct bets compared to my previous system of betting whenever I was bored. I never bet more than $180 in one month. I now have a simple spreadsheet that tracks the odds, my stake, and the results whenever I place a bet as a time stamp. It only takes me 90 seconds, and I am able to study my betting behavior stats as I do this. It is highly beneficial.
What helped me the most? I gave up on the idea of revenge betting. I used to try to “win back” the lost money by placing even larger bets immediately after losing. I figured out that was dumb and I would lose more money. Now when I have an off day, I just skip betting until the next round.
You don’t have to major in statistics to bet on football the right way. You have to take your time, simply research a little, which I swear will take you no longer than 20 minutes, and stop betting like you’re buying a lottery ticket. After doing this just a few times, the difference kept getting better and better. Gone was the stress. It was surprisingly more sustainable.