I used to be a very big loser.

As a fan of Arsenal, I placed a bet on them every week in 2019. I placed bets no matter if they played Manchester City at their home stadium or if they played a relegation team at Arsenal’s home stadium. I thought I was on to something when I thought they had to win one some time. It was poor reasoning that cost me around $340, and I finally took a long look at the bets I placed.

To make everything better, I began watching matches in a more analytical mindset.

Stop Betting With Your Heart

Betting on your favorite team or any team for that matter because of your personal reasoning, you won’t be able to see things that you would see if you were an unbiased fan. I once placed a bet on Manchester United, like a lot of other people, to beat Brighton in the 2023 March because they would “show up in big moments”, which they definitely did not. They lost 2-1, and really should have lost worse. I forgot that Brighton not only won, but dominated the aerial duels 4 matches in a row before that with a United defense that was shaky no matter the team that was pressing.

To analyze each match, I now keep a notebook and write down 3 things that actually happened that match that were not what I hoped or thought would happen. For example, “left back got turned 6 times” or “striker’s first touch in the final third was not good.” Writing each match down like this has prevented me from placing bad bets countless times.

The Numbers That Actually Matter

Most people scan the league tables and assume they know it all. It is much better to analyze how teams act in the given circumstances. Do they fold after going down first? Are they bad at dealing with set pieces?

I look at their conversion rates as well. If a team averages 18 shots a game, but they are only scoring 1.2 goals, then their shot selection is awful. Sports betting then becomes less of a gamble, and is more about looking for the signs that people are too ignorant to see.

Last season, I noticed that Brentford were scoring with a conversion rate of 23% (well above their 14% average) for five consecutive games. It was obvious that they wouldn’t become scoring machines, and in fact they regressed back to their numbers, and I profited by betting against them for three straight weeks.

Watch the First 15 Minutes

This doesn’t get enough play, because it’s so true. Teams will unveil their entire game plan in the first few minutes. Do they defend deep? Or are they sending everyone to the other teams half to cause a ruckus?

There was a match in September with Spurs playing Arsenal. Spurs came out timid and you could see it just by the way they set up their midfield. I placed a bet on Arsenal to win after just the first 11 minutes of the game. It was my best bet of the month.

There isn’t a need for you to become a master of tactics. Just focus on how the players are acting. If they are all in a huddle and by the 8th minute are pointing at one another, you know that team is having a bad day.

Build Your Own System

While I’m not saying I win every time I bet (I believe I’m winning about 58% of the time), at least I’m not throwing cash away randomly anymore with the development of a new betting system.

I spend about 20 minutes on each match I want to bet on, so I don’t just throw cash away on any match. I also stop with the dumb betting practices of doubling the next bet to try to chase the loss. Each bet goes into a spreadsheet where I collect my prediction and outcome.

There are even some weeks where I might not make a bet. That’s a lot better than wasting a bet, just because there are matches on a Saturday.

Eventually you will make your own system. The system might even just be identifying a certain type of match, like defensive ones or even making bets when you’re thinking a goalie is going to have a bad game. Just keep doing what you’re doing.