Weirdly enough, I was the worst bettor ever 3 years ago. But I played till 2:17 am, all the odds scrolling, the numbers adding up to $50-ish, betting on the oddly named teams that the sleep-deprived brains of yours & I found appealing.

My actual win rate?

31%.

I did the maths once more and I wanted to throw my laptop out the window! After a distressing realisation, though, there was a change.

Spreadsheets Revealed My Terrible Instincts

I began recording all the things in Google Sheets. Only dates, teams, amounts and results. The telltale sign for me after I waited 6 weeks was my feeling was 75% bad odds, vs. actually being that 25% bad odds time 3.

It is then I decided to ask myself what do you have doing that might be the issue? What if I didn’t take the word of what my head said, but I actually refer to real information?

Odds Are Confusing Until They’re Not

The vast majority of platforms blast out numbers. 1.32, 1.44, 1.67. Cost me $340 in one month to realise that the odds that are below 1.50 are pretty strong odds on which bookmakers are willing to bet. Doesn’t guarantee anything. Just” is a yes-man of others who understand more than I do who are making the money.

People can actually browse as long as there is some data prediction combined with personal research. Common sense must always prevail: teams cannot be picked simply because they have an interesting name and/or logo. But you have to look at the last few games, injuries, some of the games that they had against them, and even if it is raining or not.

Sometimes the cleverest thing you will do is just simply to walk away completely. This is sorely challenging on a Saturday morning at 11am as games are getting underway.

Most Prediction Sites Are Garbage

Dozen of prediction platform have been available online. Perhaps it is 43/47 that are totally useless. Pulled my hair out trying all sorts of sites with a “guaranteed profits” guarantee (which means only death, taxes and referees rocking the balls in the wrong direction).

The discovery of sources that accompanied predictions with confidence percentages was what really impacted my results. There is a difference—between the difference of 82% and 69%—between the two predictions that I can communicate. The 100 loses and 100 wins were successful enough that the 82% difference in these percentages makes a difference whether you get profitable or break a bank.

I didn’t miss either finding out more about zim betting sites or other regional sites that focus on other areas. They often have a better understanding to any competitions that take place locally, which the big sites in Europe have no idea about. Often in those smaller leagues it is a more predictable ball game.

What I Actually Do Now

I take about 23 minutes to make all my money decisions. At least two different prediction sources for the same match, and then review the previous 5 games of both teams, where not only did a prediction require them to be winners, but did have to be based on goals scored and against the field as well.

I do make sure to check if key players are out. Next, I look at all the odds and make a comparison with what the bookmaker’s odds have for it. Anywhere around 58% I’m at right now with my win via this process, and i have pulled a few scratches in the past 6 months that have brought my money from watching it all drift away over the weekend to $780, which I am certainly making substantially better than waiting for that first month just to see what happens!

There isn’t a secret formula that you need to use. Patience and discipline are required and one must be willing to forgo matches which do not offer the required information for the bet. On some weekends I will make two-gambles in total. Other weekends zero. I believe that restraint saved me all my money – more than any prediction model could have as well.