Making predictions is an innate human characteristic that we apply across a range of settings. Just open any news app, and you’ll see countless articles weighing in about the future of the economy, predicting which stocks will perform the best or worst, and what to expect from the weather in the coming days and weeks. In more casual settings, we even apply predictions to sporting events, award shows, and politics.
Predictions are something to which we naturally gravitate, and there are many reasons, ranging from how our brains operate to emotional investment. If you want to better understand why so many people get wrapped up in being right about who wins the FKF Cup or who will be walking away with coveted titles at the Kalasha International Film & TV Awards, this article will provide insight.
The Science of Prediction
When technology with machine-learning capabilities makes projections, it relies on the data sets at its disposal, often a mix of historical information and new, up-to-the-minute data. From these vast data pools, the machines recognise patterns and trends and use them to make informed predictions.
Similarly, our brains rely on data to form predictions. They never stop processing the information they receive, and they remember information from our past experiences. Like machines, they’re always working to find patterns and structure, usually without us realising it. In doing this, our brains help us prepare for future events, a basic survival instinct we’ve carried with us for thousands of years.
Of course, we don’t need this survival instinct to the same extent that we would have in another era, but our brains still operate as if we do. And this plays a key role in why we gravitate to making predictions, whether we’re planning what to wear based on the weather or deciding which slot sites popular among the world will yield us the highest rewards. Our tendency to make predictions helps us make decisions that will give us the best outcomes—including the thrill of being right and being the one to say “I told you so!” or “I knew it!” when the team we’re rooting for wins.
The continual processing of data takes up precious resources, such as time and energy, so our brain develops shortcuts for processing information known as “heuristics.” These shortcuts allow us to make rapid decisions in daily life to solve problems. They also lead to cognitive biases that skew our perceptions of the world and how the future will unfold.
Cognitive Biases at Play
We can’t have every piece of information available or be unaffected by our emotions, peers, and other external influences. These factors lead to biases that impact how we act, decide, and predict outcomes. When we make decisions about who will win, whether in the realm of sports and entertainment, stock investments, or politics, these cognitive biases subconsciously shape our decision-making and predictions.
Biases, such as confirmation, overconfidence, and false consensus, can affect our desire and tendency to predict winners. For instance, with a confirmation bias, we unintentionally pay attention to information like news articles that align with our current beliefs, making us feel more strongly that we’re right about who will win. In comparison, overconfidence and false consensus biases inflate our sense of being right and lead us to believe that most people hold the same opinions as us. This leads us to form assumptions that reinforce flawed thinking.
We unconsciously validate our biases when we predict who will win the next election or assume that our favourite team will win the game. When our biases align with the outcome of an election or game, it further reinforces them, delivering positive feelings and making us more likely to predict winners again in the future.
The Role of Dopamine
The reason we feel good when our predictions are right is linked to the chemical dopamine. Dopamine is part of our brain’s reward system and is released when we engage in pleasurable activities like eating our favourite foods, spending time with friends, or watching something that makes us laugh. It’s also released when we take part in risk-taking behaviours, even low-risk ones like guessing the outcome of a game purely for the thrill of it. Dopamine is released not just when we’re correct, but also at every stage of taking a risk.
Our brains are evolutionarily wired to seek activities that release dopamine because they make us feel good. It’s believed that this plays a role in addictions, but it also influences everyday behaviours that aren’t inherently harmful. It’s a key reason exercise and sleep help us feel better.
Our Emotional Investment in Predicting Winners
Because of both cognitive biases and dopamine-driven responses, it’s easy for us to become emotionally invested in our predictions, particularly when it’s a situation where we can be proven right, like predicting a winner. Our predictions become tied to our identity and reflect our loyalty to friends, family, community, and country. We become emotionally invested in who will win, wanting it to reflect positively on ourselves and our peers and deliver the thrill of being right and on the winning side.
By making predictions, we also emotionally invest ourselves in the whole process of an election, sports game, award show, or whatever else we follow closely. It keeps us more engaged and interested in the process. As the final outcome draws closer, each small victory and defeat is felt more deeply, adding to the anticipation and excitement—even if we lose, the experience is one we’re eager to repeat.
On a more serious note, making predictions provides another type of emotional investment, and one we don’t even realise we’re making: creating a sense of control. When we make predictions, we feel we can more adequately plan how to act or what to do for our self-interests and needs. In times of uncertainty, like a major election that could completely alter the political landscape of our country and lives, being able to make predictions provides a sense of comfort and security. These feelings often drive us to return to predictions in all manner of situations.
Conclusion
The reasons we predict winners are multifaceted. Our brains engage in this behaviour for many reasons, from wanting to make sense of the world around us to delivering a sense of control and activating the reward centres of our brains. Predicting winners taps into multiple brain functions, triggering positive emotions in the process. It’s no wonder we’re so drawn to it!