The outright betting market for the winner of the Premier League has never looked so open ahead of the 2026/2027 season.
Arsenal will defend the title that it took them more than two decades to reclaim, with Manchester City starting a new era without Pep Guardiola. Liverpool also has new management, and other teams like Chelsea, Manchester United, and Aston Villa will all fancy their chances of a top-three finish.
Many football bettors will follow daily betting tips in the lead-up to individual games, but betting on the season-long market of who they think is going to win the title is also enjoyable. This article provides a few tips for you to keep in mind when doing so.
Transfer Window Plays a Big Role
The summer transfer window stays open until September 1, so a lot can change in the space of a few weeks, even if the season has already started.
Any early price you take in the Premier League winner market won’t be as efficient as closer to the deadline, as top teams will often make marquee signings that can significantly impact their chances. On the flip side, some top players will leave, bringing their title prospects with them.
The inefficiency of the market in the weeks before the transfer deadline also means that you can get better value on certain teams, especially if you have a strong read on what a team’s plans are.
Shop Around for the Best Price
It goes without saying that the top bookies can have significant differences in the prices that they offer for these futures markets.
The house edge is often significantly bigger in outright markets compared to those of individual matches. You can add up the implied probabilities of all 20 teams winning the title, and you’ll usually get a lot more than 100%. The surplus is the house edge.
One of the few edges a bettor can get is by always shopping around for the best price during the course of a season. An odds comparison tool and having accounts with several bookies is how you can take advantage of this.
Be Very Wary of Odds-On Relegation
Hull, Coventry, and Ipswich are all short-priced favourites for relegation. While the market in recent years has been right more often than not about promoted sides, there’s a bit more to consider if you’re looking at the bottom of the table.
Last season was a cautionary tale, as both Leeds and Sunderland comfortably stayed up in the end. This contrasts with Wolves, who, after eight seasons in top-flight football, finished at the bottom with just 20 points. West Ham also went down, much to the surprise of many, while Tottenham Hotspur narrowly avoided the same fate.
If you think that one of the three promoted teams will survive, the ‘to stay up’ market will usually pay considerably better than laying the relegation favourite.
Hull currently looks to be the weakest of the three promoted teams, having had to sell players already to stay compliant with sustainability and profitability rules. However, Ipswich has recent Premier League experience, and Coventry arrives as champions with an experienced manager in Frank Lampard.
Find a Market That Fits Your Opinion
Many bettors will stick to the title market, which is often the worst priced. There are other outright markets that can offer a lot more, such as top four, top six, top half, to finish bottom, season handicaps, ‘without’ markets, each-way title bets, and player of the year.
The idea is to match your opinion to whichever market fits that narrative. If you think Chelsea will bounce back from a tough season, betting on a top-four finish will be a lot more realistic than a long-shot title challenge.
Each-way betting for the title is another route, as sometimes bookies will pay out on a fourth-place finish. However, always read the terms carefully, as the places and fractions will vary by bookie.
A Bet to Forget About
Outright bets on the Premier League won’t settle until May, so money placed in July is not usable until then. While cash-out exists, it eats into your return, and usually accepting it will cut into the true value of your wager significantly. As a result, choosing an appropriate stake size is important.
Futures bets should be small and deliberate. Avoiding correlated bets like backing Arsenal for the title, top four, and to finish in the top half is also advisable, as one bad season could lead to you losing the bulk of your bets.