Football bettors pay a lot of attention to the same things: the form, the expected goals, head-to-head records, etc. There is even the consideration of the price drifting, or shortening, in the minutes before the match. So, it presents a bit of a contradiction that, while talking about gambling, the same people who would never legally bet on a match without first finding out the team news, would happily go and bet on a slot machine that they know nothing about. There is ample data for both, but most bettors simply do not bother to look it.
This data divide is where the most interesting stuff is. Online betting has gotten very sophisticated with the systems they use to collect and analyse player data, and if you are a betting person, the most important thing you can do is learn what those systems mean in terms of your own betting habits.
Every click leaves a trail
The most modern gambling systems collect an immense amount of data, far beyond what is captured in just wins and losses. The system logs what games you opened, how long you played a game, how long your bets lasted after a winning bet, when you logged on, and even when you logged off. This data is then aggregated and combined with the data from millions of other gambling systems to create a precise model of how the population gambles.
Operators analyse this data to spot which games lose users’ attention. The published data helps players as well. The data published by Online-Casinos.com shows participation and behavioural patterns. The data shows that slots on big UK gaming operators get used about 8.7 billion times a month, while the average session lasts about 15 minutes. Most game sessions are short. Most users stick to a few games and set a budget, and those who don’t set a budget spend their time a lot differently.
Reading the numbers like you read Form
There’s a clear comparison to how serious gamblers view a match. You’d check why something is a banker before you stake on a banker of the day, and the same occurs when you look at a casino. Two specific numbers are more important than any jackpot.
First, we have the term return to player (or RTP). RTP refers to the average percentage of stakes returned to the player in the very long term. If a game has an RTP of 96%, this isn’t a guarantee that you will receive back 96p for every £1 staked, however, it is a fact about the structure of the game which cannot be altered by the marketing. The second term is volatility. Each game will have a different volatility, meaning that some games will pay out small amounts regularly, but other games will pay out larger amounts but won’t pay out as often. The key is finding a game that matches your bankroll and your patience. If you are able to do that, you are already considering the game in a more informed framework than most of the players on the site.
This is the same rigour that should be applied and considered in a betting market analysis. The articles in the victorspredict archive consistently refer back to the idea that evidence based decisions are superior to decisions based on gut feelings. For a long time, the Royal Statistical Society has made this point. They have stated that there are generally very poor interpretations of probability by the public, particularly in relation to betting streaks and “due” outcomes. A roulette wheel is not “due” for a number to come up, nor is a striker that has missed the last three goals.
The most recent Gambling Survey for Great Britain states that 37% of adults are participating in online gambling. This means that many adults are making these decisions on a weekly.
The streak trap costs people money, and that, unfortunately, makes it worth talking about. After a streak of reds, a black must be coming, right? Not at all. Each spin is separate and independent. A long streak only serves to convince you that a black must come sooner rather than later. Gamblers who monitor their results dutifully tend to be less susceptible to streaks. This is likely because they look at results as an aggregate rather than focusing on recent outcomes. This same habit that stops you from overreacting to a weekend of bad results protects your money at the gambling tables.
For the practical, keep track of your gambling sessions and stakes in a simple log. A huge benefit of doing this is that most people take their losses as wins due to their memory, but the log keeps track of all the results.
Where the edge really sits
The truth is, data will not positively shift a game with a losing margin for you which is the house. No amount of playing to a specific strategy will change a game with a losing margin into a winning one. What data will do is prevent you from worse mistakes like chasing a “hot” table, recovery bets, and playing outside of what your bankroll is made for.
That is why – alongside financial considerations – behavioural data is key to safer gambling. Monitoring player behaviour means that – just as you would receive a notification to limit your spending – you would receive a nudge to take a break. For an audience that is passionate about gambling, this information is preferred to a lecture.
The takeaway for anyone who bets
Gambling is similar to sports betting. Look at the data. Be aware of the statistics. Set spending limits. Recognise the imbalance of risk for reward. This is a form of entertainment that is only for people over the age of 18. It comes with features that help you control your gambling – things such as setting a limit on deposits or excluding yourself. However, none of this will help you win. Gaining awareness while gambling on the data is better than doing it blindly – the same holds true whether you are betting on sports or on casino games.