Jannik Sinner is set to arrive at Roland Garros 2026 looking so much stronger than every other player left in the draw. The Italian comes here on the back of winning Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome during the clay season. Since his opening round performance in Paris, his winning streak is now 30 matches.
Carlos Alcaraz is now out due to injury, so this means that the French Open looks much more straightforward for the world number one. Of course, Djokovic will always look dangerous based on his experience, but physically he no longer looks quite as capable as he was.
That is why Sinner has shortened to around 2/7 with many bookmakers, making him the heaviest French Open favourite since Rafael Nadal during his dominant years on clay.
Why Sinner Still Offers Value
For some bettors, odds this short may seem hard to justify for a Grand Slam. It onlay takes a single bad performance to see a title run being derailed.
However, the performances of Sinner over recent months has clearly separated him from the pack. The way he moves on clay has improved hugely, his serve has got better, and he now has the perfect balance between aggression and patience, which he was lacking early in his career.
Against Clément Tabur in round one, Sinner barely allowed the French wildcard any opportunities to attack. He controlled rallies comfortably, protected his serve without trouble, and finished the match without facing a single break point.
Interest in tennis betting around Sinner has seen a massive increase thanks to the levels of consistency he has been showing. . He has reached the stage where he represents a reliable bet on every surface, and has gone beyond just dominating on hard courts.
The removal of Alcaraz from the draw changes everything as well. Over the past two seasons, the Spaniard was effectively the only player consistently capable of matching Sinner physically on clay courts. Without him, the gap between Sinner and the rest suddenly looks enormous.
Alexander Zverev Could Still Cause Problems
Perhaps the one player who may have the physical tools to match Sinner is Alexander Zverev. He is far more likely to push Sinner into a difficult match than any other competitor.
The German has a heavy serve, and his backhand is hugely effective on clay. He also has a great deal of experience in long Grand Slam tournaments, so you can be sure that he will remain dangerous over five sets. Zverev has the ability to slow matches down and to extend baseline exchanges into physical battles. This is perhaps the only way of breaking Sinner’s rhythm.
The concern is mental consistency. Zverev has repeatedly produced brilliant tennis at major tournaments before struggling during pressure moments late in matches.
Djokovic Can Never Be Ignored Completely
While Novak Djokovic may have dropped off, it’s fair to say he remains a dangerous opponent at Roland Garros. He comes with tactical intelligence and the ability to manage the stress that comes with long matches.
While the Serbian may have lost his physical dominance, he still knows just how to drag opponents into uncomfortable situations mentally. When matches become tense in the fifth set, there are few players in the history of the sport who are able to manage pressure better.
Physically, though, there are more questions than before. Recovering through two demanding weeks on clay becomes increasingly difficult with age, especially against younger players capable of extending rallies relentlessly from the baseline.
Arthur Rinderknech Could Be a More Realistic Dark Horse
With Arthur Fils out injured before the tournament began, one of the more interesting outsider picks now becomes Arthur Rinderknech.
The Frenchman does not carry the same hype as younger stars, but his aggressive serving and willingness to attack early in rallies can make him dangerous during best-of-five set matches, especially if conditions become quicker in Paris.
Rinderknech also benefits from home support. French Open matches are ones when crowds become emotionally involved. If he builds confidence during the opening rounds, he has the kind of attacking game capable of frustrating higher-seeded opponents who prefer longer baseline exchanges.
Interest around sportsbooks, such as WePari, has increased around outsider players capable of producing surprising swings because live betting markets often become extremely active during unpredictable Grand Slam matches.
Final Prediction
Unless something unexpected happens physically, Sinner still looks clearly ahead of the rest of the field. His confidence, movement, serving, and tactical discipline are currently stronger than those of any remaining player in Paris.
That does not guarantee the title because Grand Slams always create pressure, especially when a career Grand Slam is within reach. Still, compared to every other contender, Sinner simply looks more complete right now.
At 2/7, the price may appear short, but based on current form and the state of the draw, it still feels justified.